Poker is a hugely popular game played by individuals of all levels and abilities. There are also different variations of poker, including community card poker, like Texas Hold’em (currently the most popular variant on the market), Omaha Hi (similar to Texas Hold’em but with more cards dealt to players), stud poker variants such as 7-Card Stud and 5-Card Stud and draw poker, including 5-Card Draw and Badugi.
Although all these variants are played slightly differently, there’s one thing they all have in common – they rely on a little bit of luck and whole lot of statistical analysis. Top players use poker statistics to guide their decisions in the game; when to bet, raise, call or fold.
You don’t need to be a maths genius to apply statistics to poker (though it certainly helps!).
Odds of hitting a hand
In poker, players must analyse the odds of the hand they hold being a winning hand when compared to their opponents, as well as how likely it is that the cards they need will appear (an out). On a basic level, the odds can be expressed either as a fraction or percentage; for example, 4 to 1, means that if you play five games, you will win one, meaning a 20% chance of winning.
There are many ways of converting odds into a percentage and vice versa. Players will need to look at the hand they hold and the flop (the initial community cards) and assess what cards they need to improve their hand and the number of outs likely. They will also need to consider what hand would be stronger than their winning hand. There are many guides available for those interested to learn the different odds associated with different cards.
Pot odds and break-even points
A break-even in poker is when the player works out what they can bet and lose to break even; anything above this is a gain, and below this is a loss. It’s often expressed as follows:
Break-even = Risk / (risk + reward)
This is a strong method used when players are bluffing. For example, if the pot sits at £6.50, and the bet is £4, by using the formula above, the player would need the opponent to fold 38% of the time for them to break even. There are some useful break-even to memorise, that will work irrespective of whether it is mere pennies, or hundreds of pounds on the table:
- Half the pot = 33%
- Two-thirds of the pot = 40%
- Full pot = 50%
Using poker statistics for database analysis
Many players use software to track their hands; this gives them a tournament return on investment statistic which is:
Tournament winnings – Tournament buy-ins / (Tournament buy-ins x 100)
Players using this method can customise their software to track pretty much anything they wish and often look at statistics like how often they bet, fold, raise and so on, and when they do so in the game. This is a really easy way to analyse a lot of hands very quickly and to compare players to see where there are areas for improvement.
Using poker statistics for villain analysis
Any good poker player will not only look at ways to analyse their own hands, looking for areas of development to improve their game, but they will also use a similar approach to analysing their opponents’ plays. By doing so, they’re able to identify areas of weakness that they can exploit and ways to improve their win rate.
In the online world, these poker stats are sometimes shown on the screen in real time (known as a ‘heads-up display’ – HUD), so opponents can assess the information (the downside is that the opponents also have access to this data). Knowing how likely an opponent will pre-flop raise (PFR) or their post-flop aggression frequency (Agg) can help opponents know when to push and when to hold back.
Using poker statistics for population analysis
The term ‘population’ here refers to the entire population of a pre-defined poker room or network and, although similar to villain analysis, this method of statistical analysis targets the overall group rather than specific individuals. The data gathered looks to make the most of the mistakes made by the average player. This type of analysis is particularly useful in situations where there’s an unknown opponent, for instance, anonymous tournaments. The basic premise is that in this situation, players have to look at what players in general would do, and the likelihood of that behaviour guiding decision-making. This uses the basic premise of game theory (also known as the Nash Equilibrium) where players make interdependent decisions and strategies.
Poker statistics in GTO play
GTO: Game Theory Optimal refers to a perfect, theoretically correct game of poker. It’s an extremely complicated strategy that realistically only a machine could follow, but using statistics makes it possible for players to use certain elements to increase their win rate. Players will look at all the possible actions and assess the probability of winning in each of the actions. They’ll also look at mix strategy, where different actions can be taken on the same hand, as well as the hand range.
General poker statistics
The oft quoted statistic is that only around 5% of poker players actually make money by playing, though other studies place this figure at anywhere between 10% and 30%. However, there’s more consensus on the fact that only around 1% of poker player win big, meaning that even the most skilled player may find that, due to the very nature of the game, it’s difficult to turn a profit out of poker – let alone a living.
Key takeaways
To best use statistics in poker, it’s essential to have a basic understanding of maths, such as calculating percentages, decimals and ratios. Probability, both consecutive and more complex, is also a useful thing to know, and there’s plenty out there to teach any player how to use this.
It’s clear that, even with a little bit of luck, poker is a highly skilled and complex game where it’s easy to learn the basics, but takes a lifetime of hard work to master.
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